target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKBN1AO08V" rel="nofollow">soft China import/export data this morning weighs against us a bit, Friday's strong U.S. employment data factors far more significantly. In fact, we think it marks inflection point for the U.S. dollar here, a point from which to rise.

Our report, Bet Your Bottom Dollar the Dollar is Bottoming was your cue to buy USD on August 3rd. Our premise was and is that the U.S. economy will mark robust expansion starting in the second half of this year and running through 2018. The economy must benefit from a fully employed America. It's a case where the long drawn out recovery from the financial crisis finally speeds to economic boom toward its crescendo, driven in its last stages by the residual of the long hard road back, a fully employed America. And tax cuts are coming...

Those hard working Americans are now paying off their overdue debts, and moving forward to home and auto purchases, home renovations and repairs; they're vacationing again and spending those hard earned dollars.

Two recent reports provided investors with the start to new confidence in the economy. GDP, reported at 2.6% growth for the second quarter, provided an important confirmation of the simply seasonal weakness of Q1. And Friday's Employment Report for July, marking strong job creation and reduced unemployment, provided confidence in what is to come.

The U.S. dollar is a relative instrument, and faces fresh threat today as well, namely from also recovering Europe and its currency. However, the U.S. central bank appears to be a step ahead of the ECB in its monetary policy plan. So economic recovery combined with justified monetary tightening should serve U.S. dollar strength, if not against the euro, then still against most other currencies.

Now, data from China this morning (see link above) showed import and export growth fell short of June's pace and economists' expectations, though it remained robust by any other standard. Still, the data provided some conflict against the recently reported upside surprising GDP growth of 6.9% for China. As such, in the early going this morning, the U.S. dollar index was lower.

We suppose, also working against the dollar, was the fantastically worded threats of North Korea, after sanctions were imposed upon it by the United Nations. North Korea's threats are directed at the USA and so threaten the dollar, if only anybody believed the North would dare follow through. Look for cyber attacks and other mischief, but unless and only when serious disruption actually occurs, will the U.S. dollar see repercussion.

The drive remains to the upside for USD, and with each new positive U.S. economic data point, I expect we will see capital increasingly buying into that. Runs in currency and commodities tend to gain momentum and take on a life of their own. I see a 10% gain likely from my buy point on August 3rd. The move is still young, and still has its doubters, and so opportunity to partake remains for currency traders. Buy the U.S. dollar here at inflection, a point from which it should rise. All forecasts are subject to change if/when new factors present themselves. I will update investors if/when any important new factors present and also on any important information. For more of my work on the U.S. dollar and forex, along with other markets, follow the column here at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in UUP over the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.